How big will the solar PV industry be in 2023?
2022 is a year of massive growth in PV module capacity, shipments and installations. Even now, when the final figures are tallied, it is clear that overall shipments are well over 300GWp-dc.
According to PV Tech's market research team, the top 10 module suppliers worldwide shipped 245GW, accounting for more than 75% of global supply. This is now a key indicator for all aspiring PV market analysts. There are several ways to estimate the size of the PV industry this year.
One could just look at expected polysilicon capacity and do a simple g/W calculation, taking into account inventory levels at the end of the year. Some people might try to add up the expected "demand" for all countries on a global basis, but that's a terrible way to forecast the industry. Or you could look at the top 10 suppliers' guidance for the year and assume that they will account for about 80% of this year's supply.
Looking at polysilicon production and adding in First Solar's expected 2023 shipments gives you about 450GW of projected shipments. Look at the top four and assume that their 30% year-over-year shipment growth is the same as the average of the other six in the top 10, and you get about 420GW. however you arrive at your conclusion, the first number is "4". If necessary, I would take 440GW as a total at the current point in time, perhaps with a margin of error of ±5%.
Of this, about 20% or more would be TOPCon components. There is another prophetic figure: Europe will consume about 100GW of modules, more than 90% of which will be entirely made in China. This could be the last year of this scenario as EU legislation is implemented, or as the boom in shipments to Europe from Turkey reaches another level in 2024.
Value chain pricing is already changing in a way that has never been seen before. There is a price for parts made in China, and a price for foreign parts. Those regions (or global sourcing companies) that are comfortable with a fully Chinese-made product are now seeing component prices well below what they were just a few months ago. Those demanding full, non-Chinese-made traceability are likely to see prices rise and a never-ending chronic undersupply in this part of the market. The less risk your supply chain traceability faces, the more room you have to raise prices.
In the next few months, PV Tech will be hosting the PV CellTech conference in Berlin (March 14-15, 2023) and the US version of PV ModuleTech (also in Napa, June 6-7, 2023). In the coming weeks, we will be releasing the PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly Report and the PV ModuleTech Sustainability Quarterly Report. Each report includes PV trends and forecasts, so stay tuned to the conference or to the hyperlinks in the reports to learn how to get deeply involved with our PV Tech research team.