Photovoltaic manufacturing industry is facing unprecedented entanglement.

On the one hand, the serious overcapacity, the industrial chain is still crazy expansion, large-scale expansion of enterprises within the industry, outside the industry have cross-border entry, more and more tragic involution; on the other hand, the old and new technology routes alternately, in the face of different new technology direction, photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises how to choose?

In addition, the United States and Europe, the return of the manufacturing industry, India, Vietnam and other countries to take the opportunity to increase the size of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry, where to go?

More worrying is that, although from the beginning of this year, silicon prices fell, photovoltaic industry chain prices gradually rationalized, the industry has increased significantly, but reflect the industry barometer of the capital market back, most of the photovoltaic-related enterprise stock prices all the way down, the market value of the market value of more than half, a small number of three-quarters fell.

Photovoltaic industry is not brewing a storm, will experience a shock?

Who will rise against the storm and become the new leader? Who will be ravaged by the storm ravaged?

Overcapacity, the war has begun?

Industry manufacturing overcapacity is becoming more and more serious, most of the links will be more than 50% excess capacity. However, the whole industry chain expansion is still up and down, the industry smoke, cross-border investment is also like crucian carp, flocking to the industry outside why so fervently chasing the light? Excess capacity leads to excessive competition in the industry, with the price line continues to press down, such excessive competition will bring a big impact on the industry?

(A) investment all the way wildly, the enterprise why crazy?

Photovoltaic industry overcapacity warning has been a long time, but led by the head of the enterprise, photovoltaic industry expansion pace is more and more aggressive.According to incomplete statistics, in the first half of 2023 there are 60 photovoltaic enterprises threw out more than 200 billion yuan financing plan, which Tong Wei, Trina, TCL Central, JinkoSolar and JA and other headline enterprises are throwing tens of billions of expansion projects.

The industry is in full swing, and outside the industry is also fascinated. Affected by the global boom cycle and the international environment, various industries are nearly saturated, and some industries are even in the trend of contraction, and various industrial capitals are eager to seek new opportunities.

In the dual-carbon goals, the photovoltaic industry is an opportunity, the industry inside and outside a bullish, more and more enterprises cross-border influx of photovoltaic track. According to incomplete statistics in the industry, only in 2022 there are about 70 listed companies cross-border into the photovoltaic, 2023 this trend is still continuing.

Under the dual-carbon target, the future of photovoltaic will assume the responsibility of the main energy, the development space is huge, the industry track is getting wider and longer, and even up to 40 years long. Solid long-term demand for the photovoltaic industry, it is the underlying logic to support the expansion of photovoltaic enterprises.

From the perspective of the structure of production expansion, the recent new production capacity is mainly centered around new technology routes represented by TOPCon and so on. For photovoltaic enterprises, this round of overcapacity is only a phased phenomenon, in the market mechanism, backward production capacity will be eliminated in large quantities, the supply side will be vacant. Therefore at this time vigorously layout advanced production capacity, is conducive to lock the market space in advance after the reshuffle, consolidate the market share.

For cross-border capital, the growth of the industry in which the space has peaked, the zero-sum game between enterprises to limit the development of enterprises. In comparison, the photovoltaic industry is in the beginning stage of the long cycle track, is the best landing point for the transfer of industrial capital.

(B) What is the outlook for the industry as prices are under pressure to go down?

In the short term, the growth rate of supply and demand is out of balance, and there will be serious overcapacity in the market. According to the principle of economics, in the absence of significant changes in the demand curve, with the gradual implementation of investment projects into production, the supply curve will continue to shift to the right, ultimately leading to the market equilibrium price continues to decrease, close to or even below the cost line of enterprises.